The stakes couldn’t be higher at the New Chandigarh Stadium as Mumbai Indians (MI) face Gujarat Titans (GT) in the IPL 2025 Eliminator. There’s no second chance here — the winner advances to Qualifier 2, while the loser’s campaign ends.
For punters, this matchup provides plenty of angles to explore: form fluctuations, squad changes, head-to-head trends, and key player battles.
Mumbai Indians finished fourth on the table, while Gujarat Titans, once on course for a top-two finish, slipped to third after back-to-back defeats. Crucially, GT are entering this high-pressure game without Jos Buttler, who has left for national duty. His absence is massive. The England star was pivotal at the top of the order, often setting the platform for the likes of Shubman Gill and B Sai Sudharsan to capitalize.
GT will turn to Kusal Mendis as Buttler’s replacement. While Mendis is a technically sound batter with a solid white-ball record, he’s yet to play an IPL match and has been out of action for over a month. Expecting him to immediately fill Buttler’s boots is ambitious.
MI’s change is far less disruptive. Ryan Rickelton is unavailable, but Jonny Bairstow slots in — an experienced IPL campaigner with recent red-ball fifties for Yorkshire. He offers immediate impact potential at the top and should handle the playoff pressure better than Mendis.
GT’s problem goes deeper than Buttler. Their bowling, once their strongest suit, has looked vulnerable in recent weeks. Mohammed Siraj has struggled, Rashid Khan is enduring his worst IPL season, and the team has leaked runs — conceding 199, 235, and 230 in their last three outings. Rashid, in particular, has only nine wickets in 14 games, averaging over 53 with an economy rate of 9.47. He’s also been hit for 31 sixes — the joint-most in a single IPL season.
In contrast, MI boast the best death-overs bowling unit in recent games, led by Jasprit Bumrah. Despite missing the first four matches, Bumrah has picked up 17 wickets with an economy of 6.33 — both personal bests. His form gives MI a significant advantage, especially on a surface that has helped both seamers and spinners.
Mumbai’s batting is top-heavy, with Suryakumar Yadav standing tall at 640 runs this season. That’s nearly 250 runs more than their next-best batter — Rickelton, who isn’t available. Bairstow’s return adds depth, but MI will still rely heavily on Surya and Rohit Sharma. Tilak Varma and Charith Asalanka are key middle-order options, with Asalanka’s offspin possibly getting him the nod over Bevon Jacobs.
From a betting perspective, the head-to-head matchups are telling. Hardik Pandya has dismissed Shubman Gill four times in just 23 balls, conceding only 19 runs — a stat worth noting if you’re looking at player dismissal markets. Rashid Khan, on the other hand, has struggled to contain Suryakumar Yadav — SKY has taken 117 runs off him in 77 balls without being dismissed. That trend could continue, making Yadav an appealing option for top MI batter.
Kusal Mendis has historically struggled against left-arm spinner Mitchell Santner — four dismissals in 39 balls for just 34 runs. That matchup could define his impact, and given the conditions, Santner could be a smart pick in bowler markets.
Another noteworthy trend is Prasidh Krishna’s dominance over Tilak Varma — two dismissals in seven deliveries without conceding a run. A high-risk matchup for Tilak if the two face off again.
The New Chandigarh pitch remains unpredictable. In four league games, teams have lost after posting 201 and won defending as low as 111. In the first playoff game, Punjab Kings were bowled out for 101. With a fresh surface expected and overcast conditions forecast, bowling-first might be the safer bet — and under totals could be worth exploring.
In terms of betting angles:
- Suryakumar Yadav is in form, has a strong record against Rashid, and is MI’s most reliable batter. He’s a great choice for top MI run-scorer.
- Jasprit Bumrah is in lethal touch and should be your go-to for top MI bowler.
- Fading Rashid Khan in bowler markets could be profitable given his poor form and SKY’s dominance over him.
- Gujarat’s unsettled batting order, missing Buttler, may struggle. Consider backing under total runs for GT.
- On the match result, MI’s experience, bowling balance, and stronger replacements give them the edge. Back Mumbai to win and advance.
GT beat MI twice in the group stage, but the conditions are different now. Buttler’s absence, Rashid’s form dip, and MI’s superior playoff experience all point to a Mumbai win.
The Eliminator is rarely about past form — it’s about who can handle pressure. And right now, MI look slightly better equipped to survive.