Player temperament and discipline
The Boks and Ireland rivalry has grown into one of the fiercest in the sport and the team that controls its aggression and channels it in the right way will have a clear edge in what promises to be another brutally physical clash.
There is plenty of feeling between the sides. Ireland have had the upper hand in recent years and won their 2023 World Cup pool match. Bok supporters have also famously adopted Ireland’s anthem Zombie by The Cranberries and created their own version featuring Dr Johan Erasmus, something that has not always been well received in the north.
In the build up to this Test former Ireland internationals Simon Zebo and Alan Quinlan revisited past comments from Eben Etzebeth who called Farrell’s side arrogant after that World Cup pool win. Ireland players were said to have told the Boks they would see them in the final. Both Zebo and Quinlan questioned the accuracy of the remarks with Zebo also suggesting Ireland can beat the Boks if they hit ruck speed under three seconds. All this adds fuel to an already fiery contest.
The game will likely swing toward the team that uses these emotions wisely. Any loss of control could lead to costly cards as Lood de Jager and Franco Mostert learned recently.
Ageing Irish heroes
Ireland ran in a record 46-19 win over a tired Wallabies side last week with Mack Hansen scoring a first half hat trick two weeks after their 13-26 loss to New Zealand. That win gives them momentum heading into a clash with the back to back world champions but there are still questions about the age of their core group. Many of the players Farrell has relied on with great success are edging closer to the end of their careers and there are not many ready made replacements pushing through.
Tadhg Furlong Bundee Aki Robbie Henshaw Tadhg Beirne Jamison Gibson Park and Garry Ringrose are all over 30. With retired greats Johnny Sexton Conor Murray Cian Healy and Peter O’Mahony already gone there is a risk this squad could be exposed against a younger more balanced Bok lineup.
Whatever happens this weekend Farrell faces a huge task in bringing through the next generation before the next World Cup cycle reaches full pace.
The Bomb Squad factor
Erasmus’ bench could be the deciding factor with the potential to flip the match in the final quarter or even earlier depending on when he pulls the trigger. He has shown on this tour that he is willing to use his subs early though recent decisions were influenced by the cards given to de Jager and Mostert. There is no telling what he will try in Dublin.
With uncertainty around Ireland’s team selection particularly the ongoing Jack Crowley and Sam Prendergast flyhalf debate Erasmus may shape his matchday squad to exploit any hesitation from the home side.