Under normal circumstances Liverpool at home feel almost automatic but their recent form in front of their own fans has been surprisingly flat.
They have struggled to control matches the way they usually do, and their defensive discipline has slipped with simple errors creeping into their game.
Brighton will arrive with confidence because Roberto De Zerbi’s side rarely shy away from a challenge. They press with purpose, and they commit numbers forward even when they face stronger teams on paper.
That bravery often leaves them exposed at the back, but it also creates chances in bunches which is why Brighton matches so often turn into wild end to end battles. They scored twice at Anfield last season and they routinely trouble teams who want to build out from the back.
Liverpool’s structure has looked shaky in recent weeks especially when opponents press aggressively.
Brighton excel in exactly that phase. If the visitors get their timing right, they can force mistakes and create high value opportunities. Liverpool still possess tremendous firepower though with Salah Diaz and Nunez all capable of turning half chances into goals. Even on a bad day Liverpool usually scores and often score more than once.
Brighton’s defensive issues are still real. They concede far too easily and have struggled to keep clean sheets regardless of opponent.
That makes this matchup feel perfect for goals. The energy and pace of both attacks combined with defensive uncertainty on both sides suggests a wide-open match rather than a tight tactical one.
Prediction: Both teams to score. Liverpool should create enough chances at home to find the net but their recent dip and Brighton’s fearless approach mean the visitors have every chance of scoring as well. The match feels too open for a low scoring battle.
Value bet: Both teams to score with over 3.5 total goals. This fixture has all the ingredients for a goal heavy contest. Liverpool’s attack should thrive at home and Brighton will press high and push forward which often leads to a chaotic high scoring game.