Wednesday, April 30th, 2025
The Champions League semi-final stage is upon us, and Wednesday night delivers a blockbuster as Barcelona host Inter Milan at the Lluis Companys Olympic Stadium. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time, live on TNT Sports, and all eyes will be on whether the Spanish giants can make their home advantage count in the first leg.
Barcelona’s Blistering Form
Barcelona come into this tie in red-hot form, having bulldozed their way past Borussia Dortmund in the quarter-finals. A 4-0 thrashing in the first leg left little doubt, and despite a 3-1 defeat in the return fixture, they cruised through 5-3 on aggregate. Their Champions League campaign has been dominant throughout — they’ve now scored 37 goals, more than any other team in the tournament.
Domestically, the Blaugrana are equally impressive. Top of La Liga with a four-point cushion over Real Madrid and fresh off winning the Copa del Rey after a dramatic 3-2 extra-time win against Los Blancos, confidence is soaring. They’re unbeaten in 27 of their last 28 matches across all competitions — a staggering run that spells trouble for any opponent.
Inter Milan’s Struggles
Inter’s route to the semis has been impressive on paper — they beat Bayern Munich 4-3 on aggregate in the quarters after easing past Feyenoord in the last 16. But the mood in Milan is far from upbeat.
Simone Inzaghi’s men are winless in their last five games, with three straight defeats in domestic action and a 3-0 Coppa Italia semi-final drubbing at the hands of AC Milan. That collapse has seen them surrender top spot in Serie A to Napoli, and confidence is visibly shaken at a pivotal point in the season.
Inter have also failed to score in their last three matches — a worrying trend heading into a tie against the most lethal attack in Europe.
Key Betting Angles
Raphinha 4+ shots (1/1 with Bet365)
The Brazilian winger is enjoying a Ballon d’Or-calibre season. With 34 goals in 56 games, including 12 in the Champions League, Raphinha has been unstoppable. He’s averaging 4.28 shots per 90 minutes in this competition and has had 25 efforts in just six games. Inter’s backline — especially with Dumfries and Pavard possibly unfit — will struggle to contain his pace and directness.
Verdict: Back Raphinha to register 4+ shots at even money.
Robert Lewandowski anytime scorer (23/20 with BetMGM)
A man for the big stage, Lewandowski has notched 11 Champions League goals in 13 appearances this season. With a scoring average of 0.84 per game and 42 goals in total this campaign, he remains Barcelona’s go-to man in crunch moments. Inter’s aging backline, likely short of full fitness, will have their hands full.
Verdict: Lewandowski at 23/20 to score anytime looks excellent value.
Correct Score Prediction: Barcelona 2-0 Inter Milan
Given Barcelona’s fluency in front of goal and Inter’s current attacking impotence, a 2-0 home win looks a solid prediction. Inter have failed to score in their last three outings, and while their defense may limit the damage, Barcelona should have enough quality to build a first-leg cushion.
Team News
Barcelona remain without Marc-Andre ter Stegen and Marc Casado, but are likely to welcome back Dani Olmo for this one — a timely boost for Xavi’s plans.
Inter Milan are sweating on the fitness of Marcus Thuram, Benjamin Pavard, and Denzel Dumfries. All three are in a race against time to be fit. If they return, expect limited minutes, which could hamper Inter’s ability to execute their counter-attacking strategy.
Head-to-Head Snapshot
In their last five meetings, Barcelona have won two, Inter just one, with the other two ending in draws. Their last meeting, a thrilling 3-3 draw in 2022, shows there’s potential for fireworks, but current form leans heavily in favour of the hosts.
Value Prop Bet
Barcelona keeper 3+ saves (-110 FanDuel)
Despite Barcelona’s dominance, their high defensive line can be vulnerable. Inter, though struggling, still boast Lautaro Martinez up front — a player capable of testing Barcelona’s goalkeeper, especially on the break. Expect a few tame but on-target shots that will pad the keeper’s stats.
Verdict: Back the Barcelona keeper to make 3+ saves in this one.
Final Word
Inter Milan have earned their place at this stage through grit and determination, but current form and fitness issues make this an uphill battle. Barcelona, on the other hand, are a well-oiled machine firing on all cylinders — and with a packed Olympic Stadium behind them, they’ll be determined to take a firm grip on the tie.
Best Bets Recap:
- Raphinha 4+ shots (1/1)
- Lewandowski to score anytime (23/20)
- Correct Score: Barcelona 2-0
- Barcelona keeper 3+ saves (-110)
Barcelona look primed to take a significant step toward Wembley — and the value is all on backing the Catalan giants to dominate.