May 25 | Old Trafford | 17:00
The final day of the Premier League season brings high stakes for Aston Villa, while Manchester United limp into their last fixture after a demoralising Europa League final loss to Tottenham. With both sides heading into this clash under contrasting circumstances, there are plenty of betting angles worth exploring.
Match Context:
Manchester United have had a season to forget—and that’s putting it mildly. Wednesday’s 2-0 loss in the Europa League final to Spurs cemented one of their worst-ever campaigns. They haven’t beaten a non-relegated Premier League side since January 26. Should they fail to win on Sunday and Tottenham avoid defeat to Brighton, United could finish 17th.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, are still chasing European qualification. They’re level on points with Chelsea and Newcastle but trail both on goal difference. Unai Emery’s men know they must win at Old Trafford and hope for a slip-up from either rival to finish inside the top six. That makes this a must-win fixture for the visitors, and they’ll be facing a United side expected to field a rotated XI.
Betting Pick: Aston Villa to Win (2.20)
Villa are motivated, better organised, and fresher heading into this clash. With United likely to rest regular starters after a grueling midweek defeat and nothing tangible left to play for, the away win offers solid value.
Player Prop: Ollie Watkins Anytime Goalscorer (3.05)
Watkins has been Villa’s talisman in attack all season, netting 16 goals in the Premier League. His xG per 90 of 0.55 is the highest of his career. He thrives on making intelligent runs off the last defender—a weakness United’s high line has struggled with all season.
Add in United’s vulnerability from set pieces and Watkins’ aerial threat, and the -105 line for him to find the net looks generous.
Player Prop: Morgan Rogers to Score or Assist (4.20)
Morgan Rogers has emerged as Aston Villa’s key creative outlet, with 14 goals and 13 assists across all competitions this season. He’s first on the team in goal-creating actions and second in passes leading to a shot.
Against a United team that struggles with pressing structure and defensive transitions, Rogers is primed to thrive. Look for him to get in behind or create in transition—especially given United’s tendency to lose midfield control when building from the back.
Market Play: Manchester United Team Total Under 0.5 Goals
Under Ruben Amorim, United have been disjointed in attack. His philosophy of building from the back has failed due to a lack of technical ball players. When forced to go long, Rasmus Hojlund struggles in duels, and the team fails to pick up second balls.
Against non-relegated teams, United are averaging just 1.08 expected goals per 90. With little to play for, a rotated side, and an in-form Villa defence, there’s value in backing United to draw a blank.
Summary of Best Bets
- Aston Villa to Win (~2.20)
- Ollie Watkins Anytime Goalscorer (-105)
- Morgan Rogers to Score or Assist (-120)
With Villa chasing Europe and United looking to simply end their season, the edge is clearly with the visitors. Emery’s side have both the tactical identity and the motivation to take advantage of a wounded Red Devils squad. Expect Villa to come out swinging.